Was Hockenheim Hulk’s Last Chance at a Podium?
The 2019 German Grand Prix saw one of the most hectic Grand Prix in a very long time with the podium finishers seeming to change every lap. One of the few to be in possibly opportunity of finishing on the podium was Nico Hulkenberg. However, the slippery 13th and 14th turns caught the German out at his home Grand Prix, giving him the same result as LeClerc, Bottas, Ricciardo, Perez, Norris and Gasly. DNF. However, this means that the German has gone 164 starts with no podium and one pole position with hope of one arriving soon disappearing with every race that happens. The hope of Hulkenberg achieving, what is arguably a deserved podium, is dissipating evermore and, as an F1 fan, watching Hulkenberg after the crash on a deck chair showing his pure misery was truly brutal to watch, with Brundle comparing it to Häkkinen at Monza in 1999 crying after spinning out of the lead. I can only imagine how elated he would have been to not only stand on the podium but also to do it at home. However F1 is known to be a sport of pain as Vettel showed us last year at the exact same circuit and Hamilton showed at Malaysia 2016. It's when the most is on the line, the drivers seem to lose out. With Renault being behind expectations and Hulkenberg's lack of opportunities to really seems that Hulk is losing grip of ever holding any trophy at the end of a race?
As mentioned, Hulkenberg has seen 164 starts in F1; in the great scheme of things, it can be seen that is maybe not that much. Mark Webber went 130 races before achieving his first win and Rosberg went 111 which he then followed by winning 22 other races. Moreover, Hulkenberg doesn't even enter the top 10 most entries with the driver with the most entries, Rueben Barrichello having 312 entries, which is 148 more entries than the German. So looking at statistics, Hulkenberg seems to have a valid chance at achieving a podium, he could only be just over half way through his career which gives hope. However, I do believe it's important to understand why Hulkenberg has not scored a podium in his career. The German has had several opportunities with him qualifying in Brazil 2010 1.029 seconds faster than any other driver, including the, at the time, dominant Red Bull's with Vettel being in second.
However, when it came to race day, Hulkenberg saw his chances of winning slip away as he lost the win at the first turn and a chance of any podium finish within the first 10 laps as Alonso overtook him for third. Hulkenberg went to finish 8th that day. The Williams car that year was not up to win any race, let alone a pole so him achieving such a feat was miraculous. However, Hulkenberg's career at Williams came to end with Pastor Maldonado, a name recognised by many in F1 took his seat for the next season. This left the German moving to Force India for two years, seeing him as Di Resta's reserve driver in 2011 to then being promoted to one of the two drivers in 2012 with the seasons showing another missed podium opportunity, this time at Spa. The Force India was running second at the 2012 Spa Grand Prix but was jumped in the pits by Raikkonen to then be overtaken by the much faster Red Bull, leaving him 4th by the end. Although it was a career best, Hulkenberg surely looks back hoping he had achieved more. However, it surely couldn't have been as bad as Brazil that year. Hoping to reclaim a lost chance a podium, Hulkenberg saw himself running in the lead after overtaking Button on lap 19. The German gained a 45 second lead with Button until the safety car was deployed. This only caused a spiral of events for Hulk who saw himself lose the lead to Hamilton on lap 49 and then collided with Hamilton 6 laps later seeing him lose control of the rear of his car, hitting Hamilton's front left tyre and retiring the McLaren driver on his last race for the team that gave him his first world championship. Nico received a drive through penalty for the crash, losing him his first victory and also podium, finishing 5th.
Monaco 2016 was another moment Hulkenberg could have scored a podium, set to finish third but traffic in the pits caused his team mate, Perez, to jump him while he was in the pits, stealing his podium. While at Renault, Hulkenberg's chances of podium have been arguably reduced with 2017's Singapore Grand Prix showing a huge accident at the beginning leaving Verstappen, Vettel and Raikkonen retired, leaving Hulkenberg in third until Kvyat brought out the safety car causing Renault pit blunders to lose him the podium and leave him in 5th until he retired from an oil leak. This leads us to 2019 with the German Grand Prix showing a large total of missed podiums which is arguably many weren't his fault.
In fact, I would argue his lack of podiums are due to his lack of ability to be in a better car; when looking at the missed podiums, it is easy to see that Hulkenberg has never been in a car having a chance to win a race apart from once. The German has driven for Williams, Force India, Sauber and Renault, in which only one of those has won in the hybrid era. Therefore, his lack of podiums is highly understandable. However, although a few were his fault with him arguably hitting Lewis in 2012, it can be noticed that as a driver, he is unlucky. His 2013 season saw him move from Force India to Sauber, a move that was a mistake as Force India's 2013 season saw a much better car than that of Sauber's and his chances have almost been stolen from him by his team with Monaco 2016 and Singapore 2017. I fear that Hulkenberg falls into the same issue as many F1 drivers of his talent not being truly allowed to be shown with Hulkenberg arguably being one of the most reliable drivers on the grid. Since arriving at Renault, Hulk has been above all his team mates in the standings by the end of the year and has done so with every team mate but Barrichello and Perez who beat him two seasons (2015 and 2016) in a row with Hulk beating Perez in 2014 by 37 points. The question is however, will his chance increase or is he doomed to forever have been near a podium but not quite there?
Well if you had asked Renault last year, they would have told you they could have won Hulkenberg more than one podium with possible wins on offer. 2018 Renault showed confidence within their Formula One future, hoping to return to the Team Spirit livery days with Abiteboul comparing Ricciardo's arrival to that of the arrival of Alonso in 2005 and 2006. However, the manufacturer team has seen nothing such as that this year. Hulkenberg's best position this year has been seventh in Australia, the opening race of the 2019 season, and Canada. With almost half way through the season, the team is also losing in constructors to McLaren, a customer team, showing a lack of control over keeping their 4th in the constructors. There is definitely a lack of hope within the team scoring any podium this year with neither driver showing hope and many judging Ricciardo's move to Renault as less Alonso 2005 to more Alonso 2014 when he moved to McLaren. However, it could be that this is just a transition year with 2018 seeing a reshuffle within the team's drivers and management, it means they would have had no effect on the original 2019 car and therefore 2020 holds more hope and then 2021 is a year of new regulations so Hulkenberg's podium chances may become a reality by 2021. However, by then he will have raced 204 races and including Australia 2021, it will be 205 races and it seems unlikely he will win his first outing the new regulated f1 car. Therefore, Hulkenberg will be wanting to probably achieve a podium before this and therefore this may mean he needs to change teams.
One of the paddock rumours circulating early 2019 comes within Red Bull; Pierre Gasly, a rookie in 2018, was moved up from Toro Rosso, Red Bull's B team, to Red Bull after Ricciardo left. However, his performance compared to that of Verstappen has been to say the least abysmal with him not racing the top 5 but instead spending most his races fighting the midfield in what is a much faster car. The result of this led to many speculations of Gasly being replaced with Red Bull known to have done it in the past with Kvyat replaced by Verstappen in 2016 and in 2017 both drivers of Toro Rosso replaced midway through the second half of the season. One of the names mentioned to replace Gasly however, was Hulkenberg.
The rumour existed for several days until Helmet Marko, in his signature style, put an end to the rumour saying it was 'far fetched'. However, if Gasly is to be replaced, which in total honesty is not unrealistic, would Hulkenberg be a choice? Honestly, I think not, seeing as Kvyat through his performance in Germany put himself as a very viable option. His third was an amazing feat by the Russian and also showed his return this year was a choice well made. Moreover, Red Bull have already shown interest in him; although demoted, he was in Red Bull for the 2015 season and part of 2016. If the team felt that he showed potential again, I can't see why they wouldn't bring him back. Moreover, it would also mean that Gasly could stay in the sport and given more time to prepare with Kvyat and Gasly just switching teams with Gasly already having raced for Toro Rosso and therefore knowing the team and how it works, allowing a smooth transition, instead of a messy negotiation between two teams with an already fragmented relation. Red Bull and Renault after the switch to Honda from Renault engines has a strong tension with 'Drive to Survive' on Netflix showing the tension between the team bosses. So Hulkenberg moving up to a better team is unlikely; Renault are at the top of the midfield and its unlikely Ferrari or Mercedes will take him with Mercedes having Ocon in the wings and Ferrari hiring Raikkonen if needed or even Mick Schumacher who they have shown much love to over this season. Therefore Hulkenberg's best option is to probably just wait it out but I believe it shows a key issue within F1.
Hulkenberg is a great driver, he has shown this repeatedly, but the lack of a car like Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull limits him from a podium and I sorely hope the future regulations allow a more fair playing field as this seems to be the only opportunity he will have to score a podium before he retires. I guess only time will tell if Hulkenberg will get a podium but for his sake, I hope he does and the day he does (because I'm sure he will), I'm sure many F1 fans will be elated and I hope he gets the gratification of finally achieving it.
